Elon Musk Addresses and Fixes Tesla’s Major Weakness

5 min read
May 22, 2024
Photo by Brecht Denil on Unsplash

Elon Musk has a particular technology he holds a strong disdain for: lidar. Musk has stated, "Anyone relying on lidar is doomed. Doomed. Expensive sensors that are unnecessary.” As a result, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system doesn’t incorporate these laser-based 3D mapping sensors, instead relying solely on cameras to perceive its surroundings. This approach runs counter to the prevailing belief in the self-driving industry, where lidar is generally considered crucial for fully autonomous vehicles. Therefore, a significant question arises about whether Tesla can ever develop a safe self-driving car using its current method. This concern is especially pressing since Musk is staking Tesla’s future on perfecting this technology ahead of the competition. However, it appears Musk may have recognized a flaw in his stance, as Tesla recently bought $2 million worth of lidars from Luminar. While this shift might seem subtle, it could be pivotal in securing Tesla’s future. Allow me to elaborate...

When I say Musk has placed Tesla's entire future on self-driving technology, I really mean it! Tesla has scrapped the eagerly awaited Model 2 in favor of developing a robotaxi based on the same platform. They’ve also stopped their gigacasting project, which had the potential to reduce the manufacturing costs of all Tesla models. Musk has even let go of key talent, including the heads of battery development, vehicle development, and supercharger operations. The teams working on these projects have been dissolved as well! This appears to be a strategy to cut costs and redirect as much funding as possible into transforming Tesla’s FSD AI into a fully autonomous system that meets legal standards.

To put it differently, Musk is giving up all of Tesla’s benefits in the EV industry in an effort to make self-driving cars a reality.

This poses an issue because FSD still has a long way to go to meet this objective!

Back in 2021, Musk ignored his engineers' recommendations and decided to strip Teslas of their radar and ultrasonic sensors, relying solely on camera data for Full Self-Driving (FSD). The engineers warned the public about this decision, revealing to the press that it significantly compromised FSD's safety and advising against its use. Tesla's recently shared data backs this up, indicating that FSD leads to at least twice as many fatalities per mile driven compared to human drivers, even with human supervision. If FSD were operating independently as a self-driving car, this number would be even higher.

Without other sensors, FSD faces a significant vulnerability. There’s no method to verify or confirm errors, which frequently occur with computer vision (i.e., an AI that identifies objects in a video feed). If the cameras are disrupted by unexpected poor lighting, mud, or rain, the system can essentially drive blind. Therefore, despite billions of dollars invested in developing FSD AI to improve its driving skills, this inherent flaw could prevent it from meeting the safety criteria required for full autonomy.

This is why nearly every self-driving initiative relies on lidar. This cutting-edge technology employs range-finder lasers to generate a detailed, real-time 3D point cloud map of its surroundings. The high level of detail lidar provides allows self-driving vehicles to more reliably identify objects such as other cars, lanes, pedestrians, cyclists, road signs, and intersections, outperforming any other currently available technology. While lidar isn’t without flaws—it can be hindered by rain and cannot interpret road signs—combining it with camera feeds, radar, and ultrasonic sensors equips a self-driving car with ample data. This combination helps the car read the road accurately and reliably, offering sufficient redundancy to handle complex conditions that may involve various sensor types.

At present, Luminar's lidar units run about $1,000 apiece. This means Tesla's $2 million purchase translates to roughly 2,000 lidar units! While Tesla has previously placed orders with Luminar, those were in much smaller amounts, primarily for assisting in the development and validation of the computer vision for their Full Self-Driving (FSD) system. So the question arises: why has Tesla decided to order such a large quantity now?

Well, it’s anticipated that Tesla will reveal its Model 2-based robotaxi before the year ends. Musk has even suggested to Chinese authorities about testing this robotaxi on their roads, and they seemed quite open to the idea. Given the current state of FSD, launching such a robotaxi now would be a disaster. It would likely face frequent crashes and incidents. With Tesla already under close scrutiny and investors being very unsure about the shift towards focusing the company’s future on self-driving technology, any indication that this robotaxi poses a danger could be catastrophic. Musk simply cannot afford to take any risks. Therefore, I believe this lidar order is meant for the initial robotaxis, marking the first indication that FSD will incorporate lidar technology in the coming years.

This move should make FSD and the robotaxi significantly more reliable and safer. Consequently, it’s logical for Tesla to swiftly integrate lidar sensors, as this enhances the likelihood of Musk’s substantial self-driving gamble succeeding. However, it’s still uncertain if it will be truly profitable; we don’t even have confirmation that the current AI technology can achieve the reliability and safety required for autonomous vehicles, given that AI training and development appear to be reaching a plateau. Additionally, there are other challenges, such as determining how to retrofit these lidars onto Teslas equipped with FSD, which Tesla has committed to making fully autonomous eventually. Tesla also lacks a large amount of real-world lidar driving data, and they will require an enormous dataset to train the FSD AI to interpret this new kind of information.

However, Tesla hasn't confirmed any plans involving lidar. These devices could be intended for a completely different initiative. It seems logical for them to be related to FSD and the robotaxi, but Musk's current unpredictable behavior doesn't lend much clarity. Still, for Tesla's future success, I hope Musk recognizes the clear benefits of lidar, as ignoring them could significantly impact the company's trajectory.

Read more in Tech